Brisbane property market news

Brisbane house prices

After the house-led boom over the past two years brought attached housing prices up to record levels, it’s to be expected that the average house price in Brisbane would be first in line to experience a correction.

Brisbane house prices – October 2022

In October, the median house price in Brisbane fell by -2.2 per cent, eating into recent gains and bringing the decline over three months to -6.2 per cent. Annual growth remains in the green at +8.0 per cent, but expect that number to drop as gains from the first half of 2022 begin to slip away.

Top 5 Brisbane suburbs for first home buyers – houses

Brisbane’s median house price skyrocketed over the past two years, making affordable housing harder to come by for first home buyers. Here are some of our top picks for Brisbane suburbs where you can buy below the median house price.

Top Brisbane suburbs under $500,000 house price

Brisbane unit prices

Unlike houses, the Brisbane unit market is declining at a relatively gentle rate, as investors and first home buyers seek out value.

Brisbane unit prices – October 2022

The median unit price in Brisbane dropped by -0.9 per cent in October, bringing quarterly gains into the negative at -1.2 per cent. Over the past 12 months, Brisbane units have increased in value by +10.7 per cent, with the median price currently sitting at just under $500,000.

Top 5 Brisbane suburbs for first home buyers – units

Units offer better affordability for first home buyers in Brisbane, although median prices have still climbed since 2020. Here are some of our top picks for Brisbane suburbs where you can buy below the median unit price.

Top Brisbane suburbs under $500,000 unit price

Brisbane property market forecast 2022-2023

After such historic growth over the past two years, economists say a market correction was inevitable. The question is, how far will that market downturn go?

NAB’s latest Brisbane house price forecast has homes closing out 2022 +7.4 per cent ahead before plunging -16.2 per cent in 2023 once the full effects of interest rate hikes are felt.

Westpac’s Brisbane real estate forecast tells a less volatile story. They see Brisbane property values ending 2022 +2 per cent higher before dropping -6 per cent in 2023.

Big four banks’ Brisbane home price forecasts 2022-2023

It’s worth keeping in mind that the big banks’ forecasts are notoriously conservative. The last time they predicted a decline of that magnitude was in the early days of the pandemic. As it turned out, they couldn’t have been more wrong.

Even so, how far prices fall depends largely on how high interest rates peak, and they may have a way to go yet.

Currently, the RBA has the cash rate set at 2.85 per cent, a long way up from the emergency-level 0.1 per cent rate borrowers were enjoying until May 2022. Banks are predicting it could reach anywhere between 3.10 and 3.85 per cent in 2023.

Big four banks’ cash rate forecasts 2022-2023

Brisbane apartments are outperforming houses substantially at this point. That dynamic could continue for several reasons.

For one, the 2021 boom was house-led. Affordability in the house market has reached critical levels, even in Brisbane, and with house prices gaining a significant amount more than units, they also have further to correct.

Units are also expected to appeal further to incoming investors as immigration is set to ramp up significantly, bringing additional demand to the rental market. Looking longer-term, the Brisbane Olympics is another reason the city is seeing an increase in investor activity.

What are industry experts saying?

Michael Yardney – Director of Metropole Property Strategists

“I see Brisbane’s property market continuing to grow slowly for the balance of 2022 with a total level of growth of around 7 to 8 per cent throughout 2022 until eventually, affordability slows the market down.

While a lot has been said about the 30 per cent increase in property values many Brisbane locations have enjoyed over this property cycle, it must be remembered that the last peak for our property markets was in 2017, and in many locations, housing prices remained stagnant over a subsequent couple of years. It was really only earlier this year that new highs were reached.

And that time round, Brisbane really missed out on the significant property boom Melbourne and Sydney enjoyed in the years prior to 2017.”

Gareth Aird – Commonwealth Bank’s head of Australian economics

“[Prices] are declining at a pretty quick pace, the forecast profile is that we hit the trough in the second half of next year and that the RBA ends up cutting interest rates, and then the market starts to rally off the back of that, but again we don’t know how much higher [rates] are going to go.

“Until the RBA stop raising interest rates [prices will be soft]….as a lot of buyers are sitting and waiting to see what rates get to before deciding what they want to pay.”

Brisbane house prices graphs and charts

The latest Brisbane property price graph from CoreLogic’s monthly chart pack clearly shows the rapid acceleration and sustained highs of the Brisbane property market until the recent easing.

The massive upward surge from early 2021 follows a lengthy period of stagnation for Brisbane, becoming one of the most explosive times of growth in Australian history. It would take a similarly historic crash to wipe out even the majority of the gains built up in Brisbane over the recent boom.

Looking at the wider context of the housing market over time, we can see in this 30-year house price growth chart that Brisbane’s recent gains have shot prices up at a historic rate.

The declines over recent months pale in comparison to the surge in growth seen across South East Queensland since the pandemic began.

Brisbane property info for sellers

According to Domain’s figures, the Brisbane auction clearance rate has been in a slump over the past few months, falling from a recent high of 78 per cent on April 9th to a low of 33 per cent on July 30th. Auction clearances are still at quite low rates for the spring selling season. Days on market (DOM), meanwhile, has risen but is still fairly low compared to other cities.

With the market now cooling off rapidly, top agents are urging Brisbane sellers to be very mindful of how they price and present their properties, which method of sale to use, and when an offer is the right one to take.

Also consider that not every suburb is performing in the same way. Check out the Brisbane suburbs where property prices are still rising, in some cases by more than +20 per cent in Q2 2022.

Get a better understanding of what selling now is really like by reading one of our OpenAgent colleague’s recent experience of selling in a cooling market.

And get everything you need to answer the biggest question on sellers’ lips: should I sell my house now or wait?

Brisbane property investment

The Brisbane property market is looking especially promising for investors as purchase prices begin to decline, rental vacancies are towards record lows, asking rents continue to increase at pace, and further demand is expected as immigration returns and the city gears up for the 2032 Olympics.

Top 5 suburbs for Brisbane investors

BuyersBuyers’ latest Investor Special Report detailed some of the top suburbs where Brisbane property investors could find strong potential.

The report noted that “much of south-east Queensland is suffering from a chronic shortage of available rental stock as population growth has boomed. There is little respite on the horizon, and we expect rental vacancies to remain extremely tight over the year ahead.”

Top suburbs for investors to buy units in Brisbane

With the Olympics coming to Brisbane in 2032, investors considering the long-term are wisely eyeing off the city as the market looks set to benefit many years beyond the Games.