CoreLogic: Housing Values 1.5% Higher in October as Growth Trends Ease and Downside Risk Builds

Australian housing values rose 1.5% in October,  a similar result to August and September. However, taking the monthly change out another decimal point shows the market is continuing to slowly lose momentum since moving through a peak monthly rate of growth in March (2.8%). Nationally, the monthly growth rate eased to 1.49% in October from 1.51% in the previous month.

Although nationally the headline growth reading remains virtually unchanged over the month, across the broad regions of Australia market conditions are starting to show some diversity.  Perth recorded its first negative monthly result since June last year, with values nudging -0.1% lower. At the other end of the spectrum, Brisbane has taken over as the fastest growing market with housing values up 2.5% in October. This was followed by Adelaide and Hobart, with both dwelling markets increasing 2.0% in value over the month.  In Sydney and Melbourne, the monthly rate of growth has more than halved since the highs seen in March 2021, when they reached a monthly growth rate of 3.7% and 2.4% respectively.

Across the regional markets, New South Wales (2.1%) and Queensland (1.9%) led the pace of capital gains while Western Australia was the only broad rest-of-state region to record a marginal fall in housing values (-0.1%).

According to CoreLogic’s research director, Tim Lawless, slowing growth conditions are a factor of worsening housing affordability, rising supply levels, and less stimulus.  “Housing prices continue to outpace wages by a ratio of about 12:1. This is one of the reasons why first home buyers are becoming a progressively smaller component of housing demand.  New listings have surged by 47% since the recent low in September and housing focused stimulus such as HomeBuilder and stamp duty concessions have now expired.  Combining these factors with the subtle tightening of credit assessments set for November 1, and it’s highly likely the housing market will continue to gradually lose momentum.”

Although the monthly pace of growth is easing, the annual trend has continued to rise, which is a factor of the stronger growth conditions throughout early 2021.  Nationally home values are up 21.6% over the year to October, with half the capitals recording an annual growth rate in excess of 20%.  Across the broad regions of Australia, regional Tasmania has led the nation for the pace of annual capital gains with dwelling values rising by 29.1%.

Unit markets have generally continued to record a lower rate of growth relative to houses, with this trend most evident in the annual results.  In the largest capitals, Sydney house values are up a stunning 30.4% compared to a 13.6% rise in unit values, while in Melbourne house values rose 19.5% over the year compared with a 9.2% gain in unit values.  This trend is less evident across regional areas of Australia where the performance gap between houses and units is relatively small.

National rents were up 0.7% in October, roughly equivalent to the September reading (0.6%), but lower than the trend rate of rental growth earlier this year. Some of the strongest rental markets, such as Perth and Darwin, are now seeing a clear easing in the annual trend of rents. In most other regions the trend in rents is generally holding firm or accelerating.