The City Where Home Prices Are Tipped To Keep Surging in 2022 When Others Come Off The Boil

In fact, forecasts are for the Queensland capital to lead price growth nationally next year while other major cities take a backseat.

Over the past year, Brisbane has seen home price growth of 23.3%, more than five times its average of 4.4% annually over the past decade, according to PropTrack data.

In terms of annual growth, Brisbane currently sits in the middle of the pack, behind Darwin (41.7%), Hobart (34.5%), Canberra (32%) and Sydney (26.6%).

But in November, the city had the second-highest monthly growth rate of the capitals, with prices up by 1.4%, only just behind Hobart and Darwin at 1.6%. Sydney, Melbourne and Perth all recorded growth of less than 1%.

“Nationally, we’ve seen growth stabilise over the past couple of months in most capital cities, and growth in Melbourne has started to slow a little,” PropTrack economist Angus Moore said.

“In contrast, property price growth has continued to surge in Brisbane.”

It’s been a bumper year for Brisbane property – and it’s only going to continue in 2022. Picture: Getty Images

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Moving forward, Brisbane is tipped to have the highest growth of all the capitals in 2022, albeit with prices rising at a slower rate than in 2021.

Three of the big four banks predict Brisbane’s real estate market will outpace other capitals, before coming off the boil in 2023 when interest rates begin to rise.

Westpac is the most bullish, tipping a double-digit rise of 10% for Brisbane dwelling prices, while ANZ and the Commonwealth Bank expect a price growth rate of 9%.

Experts say Brisbane is long overdue for a boom. Picture: Getty Images

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Despite having seen strong growth already, Brisbane is really just getting started in terms of its upward momentum, said Hotspotting founder and director Terry Ryder.

Hotspotting data shows Brisbane is the national leader for rising sales activity, having the biggest percentage of suburbs with growing sales volumes.

That’s a forward indicator of what might shortly happen with prices, Mr Ryder said.

“Brisbane is probably going to be the price growth leader next year, and regional Queensland will be close by as well,” he said.

“The growth in Brisbane is likely to be a fairly long-term trend. It will be a growth market to 2032, I think, but the rate of growth will be different year-to-year.”

Unprecedented demand set to strengthen

Already-strong buyer demand in Brisbane is predicted to pick up further next year, with even higher interstate migration rates and investor activity expected, thanks to the reopening of borders.

Recently released data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics found Queensland recorded the largest number of interstate arrivals of all the states in the first 12 months of the pandemic.

It saw a net internal migration of 30,785 people in the year to March 2021, double the state’s annual average from 2010 to 2020.

Of those, 14,469 people moved to Greater Brisbane.

Queensland’s economy is one of the strongest in the nation. Picture: Getty Images

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Both owner-occupiers and investors are being drawn to the city, largely due to its affordability, lifestyle and improving infrastructure, the latter of which is set to transform the city in the future.

Brisbane – and Queensland more generally – has been a big beneficiary of how the pandemic has led many people to reassess where they want to live, Mr Moore said.

“We’ve seen a lot of people move to Queensland, particularly from Sydney and Melbourne. There has been a lot of demand for the sort of lifestyle that Queensland offers.

“At the same time, Brisbane is also substantially more affordable than Sydney and Melbourne.

“Median property prices in Brisbane are more than 40% below Sydney and more than a quarter below Melbourne.”

Being named host city for the 2032 Olympic Games will only add to Brisbane’s fortunes. Picture: Getty Images

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Mr Ryder said it was assumed Brisbane’s property market would boom last decade, off the back of the growth in Sydney and Melbourne from 2013 to 2017.

It didn’t happen, largely due to the city lacking the driver that was pushing prices in those southern cities to new heights – infrastructure.

Now, infrastructure is one of key factors drawing more people to Brisbane than ever before, with the city picking up the pace with big projects both underway and planned, he said.

These include Cross River Rail, Brisbane Metro, Queen’s Wharf, Brisbane Live and Waterfront Brisbane, with more infrastructure also to come for the Olympic Games in 2032.

“Queensland’s relative success in dealing with the pandemic is another factor that prompted people to want to move to Southeast Queensland,” Mr Ryder said.

“Everybody wants to own a piece of Brisbane now.

“It was already a rising market for various reasons, and the Olympics decision is the icing on what was already a fairly tasty cake.”

An enormous investment in infrastructure, particularly transport projects, is fuelling future growth. Picture: Getty Images

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In addition to expected strong capital growth, Craig Hogg, managing director of The Edge Property Buyers, said Brisbane offers investors strong rental yields and low vacancy rates.

Earlier in the year, the market was dominated by owner-occupiers, as well as buyers from southern states looking to lease homes in the short-term and then migrate as soon as border restrictions allowed, according to Mr Hogg.

But he said investor activity is growing and expected to continue rising throughout 2022.

Queensland is the number one property destination for investors, according to both the latest Property Investment Professionals of Australia Investor Sentiment Survey, which found 58% of investors believe it has the best prospects, and the recent Property vs Postal survey undertaken by MCG Quantity Surveyors, which found it was the top investment destination, with 37.44% of investors buying there.

Current rates of property price growth

Source: PropTrack – figures current to November 2021

Mr Hogg said the Brisbane market has been “white hot” since November 2020 and buyer demand has been “frenetic” throughout 2021, no matter what the price range.

“It has been highly competitive across all price points and in most suburbs throughout Brisbane and its surrounding regions,” he said.

“I’ve been buying in Brisbane for five years and this is the most active market during that time. As a former Sydneysider, this market feels like Sydney’s boom in the late 90s and the early 2000s.

“We have seen some dramatic price jumps across Brisbane throughout the year, and through most of it, there would be weekly price increases.

“2021 has been the year for the detached dwelling, and this will continue to be the favoured choice for years to come. COVID pushed people to the suburbs looking for more space and a backyard.”